USA Look to Escape Last-16 Curse Against Fading Belgium

The story so far tells you everything you need to know about this World Cup's co-hosts. Canada and Mexico have already packed their bags. Now it falls to the USA to write a different ending—one where a host nation actually makes it past the last 16.

The Americans topped their group and then dispatched Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 to set up this knockout date with Belgium, who scraped through their own Round of 32 tie in dramatic fashion. The Red Devils trailed Senegal 2-0 before mounting an unlikely comeback to win 3-2 after extra-time. The winner here heads to California to take on either Portugal or Spain.

When and Where

Seattle Stadium hosts proceedings at 1am BST (8pm Monday local) on Tuesday, July 7. BBC coverage begins at 12.45am, with BBC Radio 5 Live and talkSPORT providing full commentary.

USA's Squad Situation

Folarin Balogun's availability represents perhaps the most intriguing subplot. The striker opened the scoring against Bosnia-Herzegovina before receiving a straight red for a foul on Tarik Muharemovic in the second half. What looked like a certain absence has evaporated after FIFA suspended his automatic one-match ban for 12 months—a decision that's already stirred considerable controversy.

Midfielder Cristian Roldan and defender Mark McKenzie have both been sidelined with injury, though both have been spotted in individual training sessions. Whether either makes the matchday squad remains uncertain.

Belgium's Fitness Puzzle

Romelu Lukaku's involvement has been carefully managed throughout this tournament. Charles De Ketelaere has operated as a false nine in three of four group matches, but Lukaku announced his return with a goal and assist in the final group game against New Zealand. He then struck the crucial equaliser that sparked Belgium's comeback against Senegal and will be pushing hard for a starting berth, though another appearance from the bench seems equally likely.

Defender Zino Debast has missed the entire tournament with a leg injury but has returned to training and could feature on the matchday squad.

The Betting Market

The USA sit as 13/8 favourites to win in 90 minutes, with Belgium at 15/8 and a draw priced at 5/2. In the qualification market—accounting for extra-time and penalties—the Americans are 17/20 to progress, Belgium 21/20. Both remain long shots in the outright winner betting at 45/1 and 75/1 respectively.

The Narrative

For the Americans, reaching the last 16 is routine. Getting past it? That's where the script invariably ends. They've exited at this stage in each of their last three World Cup appearances, most memorably to Belgium in 2014. Tim Howard made a World Cup-record 16 saves that day before Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne broke through in extra-time.

Yet this Belgium side bears little resemblance to that 2014 vintage. In normal time, they've drawn three of their four group matches, with their only victory coming against New Zealand—hardly a marker of imperious form. An ageing squad having just battled through 120 minutes against Senegal will find the USA, bristling with energy and dynamism under Mauricio Pochettino, a considerably tougher proposition.

Belgium's attacking talent remains capable of moments of genuine class, so backing a USA victory combined with both teams scoring at 10/3 offers reasonable value. The Americans have led at half-time in every game bar their dead-rubber against Turkey, making USA-USA in the Half-Time Full-Time market at 31/10 an intriguing play.

Then there's the Balogun subplot. The striker's right to play has become one of the tournament's most contentious decisions. Sometimes these things write their own endings—and at 11/2 to score last, you wouldn't bet against the narrative.